If, At First, The Idea is Not Absurd, Then There is No Hope For It: Towards 15 MtC in the UK Transport Sector.

This paper examines the possibilities of reducing transport carbon dioxide emissions in the UK by 60 per cent by 2030 using a modified scenario building and backcasting approach. It examines a range of policy measures (behavioural and technological), assessing how they can be effectively combined to achieve the required level of emissions reduction. The intention is to evaluate whether such an ambitious target is feasible, identify the main problems (including the transition costs), and the main decision points over the 30-year time horizon. This paper outlines the first stages of the research, providing: An introduction to futures studies, including a review of forecasting, scenario building and backcasting approaches; An assessment of the UK transport sector's contribution to climate change and global warming, and; Setting targets for 2030, forecasting the business as usual situation for all forms of transport in the UK, and assessing the scale of change in terms of achieving the emissions reductions. The benefits of scenario building and backcasting are that innovative packages of policy measures can be developed to address emissions reduction targets. It allows trend-breaking analysis, by highlighting the policy and planning choices to be made by identifying those key stakeholders that should be included in the process, and by making an assessment of the main decision points that have to be made (the step changes). It also provides a longer-term background against which more detailed analysis can take place.

Wedge issues, winning votes and car drivers

There are two major political events looming in the UK, and they are leading to an interesting turn in tactics by the Conservative Party, incidentally trailing badly in the polls for both. The London mayoral election will be held in May 2024 and the UK general election at the latest by January 2025 (the current electoral rules are that a general election has to be held at most five years after the preceding election). A tactic that we see emerging in contemporary political strategy in the UK, drawing on decades of practice from the US, is to create ‘wedge issues’. These are topics with a controversial and divisive nature, typically with a populist theme. The aim is to attract voters from the opposition or to raise an issue of internal dissent that may help to reduce support for the opposition, including through disillusionment

Introduction to the special issue on climate change targets and urban transport policy

Introduction to the special issue on climate change targets and urban transport polic

Giving current and future generations a real voice: a practical method for constructing sustainability viewpoints in transport appraisal

Decisions to invest in large-scale transport projects typically extend beyond traditional costbenefit analysis. Multi-criteria analysis methods such as multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) have been proposed to assess wider economic effects and long-term environmental impacts from various stakeholder perspectives. However, there is no standard practice for appraising transport projects against sustainable development objectives. In order to give future generations a voice in decisions that will impact them, this paper extends the MAMCA methodology to make various actors and a “sustainability viewpoint” explicit. A dual-approach method for constructing sustainability viewpoints in transport appraisal is proposed. The method juxtaposes an expert-based approach with a principle-based approach. In the former, sustainability experts are asked to prioritise criteria for project assessment. In the latter, criteria weights are calculated based on sustainability theory (“strong” and “weak” sustainability). Together, these viewpoints are intended to inform decision-making. The appraisal of HS2 Phase I, a high-speed rail project in the UK, is used to demonstrate the proposed method. It is found that all three variants of the sustainability viewpoint result in project preferences that are similar to each other, but different from those of other transport professionals. The paper concludes by arguing for the explicit inclusion and triangulation of sustainability viewpoints in transport appraisal on a multi-actor basis. One practical recommendation from the MAMCA process is the need to hire more transport planners with sustainability experience into government planning agencies